The fall of the euro touched a new historical record on Thursday. According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the European currency was exchanged today at 103.6 ALL, the lowest level ever recorded. Compared to the same period a year ago, the Euro-Lek exchange rate decreased by 11.7%.
In this period, the exchange rate is entering the moment when the summer seasonal effect is stronger than ever, due to the peak tourist season. Based on the data so far and the expectations of the operators, it is expected that the year 2023 will mark a new record in the number of foreign tourists and in foreign exchange flows from tourism.
In this way, even the seasonal effect this year may be even stronger than previous years. However, this year the fall of the Euro started very early, since April.
In general, the improvements in the balance of payments in the first quarter of the year support an appreciating tendency of the local currency. The main sources of foreign currency inflows that have narrowed the current account deficit are exactly tourism, the improvement of the trade balance of services in general and remittances.
On the other hand, foreign investments have continued to grow and their amount significantly exceeds the value of the current account deficit.
The figures of the first quarter showed a slowdown in the investment of foreign citizens in real estate, but, however, according to foreign exchange market agents, the second and third quarters of the year have brought an increase in investments by foreign buyers, especially in tourist areas.
It is clear that, at least for the summer season, the expectations of exchange agents remain for a further strengthening of the Lek against the Euro. Based on historical data, the peak of the seasonal effect on the exchange rate is usually reached in the first days of August.
However, the appreciation of the Lek this year is also strong against other major currencies. This increase in price is partially influenced by the drop in the internal exchange rate of the euro, which is the reference foreign currency in the Albanian economy, and partially by developments in international markets.
Dollari amerikan pësoi të enjten një tjetër rënie të fortë me 1.64 pikë dhe zbriti në 92.77 lekë, duke shënuar vlerën më të ulët që prej dhjetorit të vitit 2009. Ndërkohë, paundi britanik pësoi gjithashtu rënie me 0.9 pikë, duke shënuar një rekord të ri historik, në nivelin 121.12 lekë.
Forcimi i Lekut në kursin e këmbimit kundrejt valutave të partnerëve kryesorë tregtarë i bën më të lira importet dhe në teori duhet të ndikojë në një ulje të komponentit të importuar të inflacionit. Ky efekt mund të jetë më i prekshëm pas vjeshtës. Forcimi i Lekut po favorizon gjithashtu huamarrësit në Lekë, duke ulur vlerën e kredisë dhe të këstit mujor, të shprehur në monedhën vendase, në të cilën shumica e huamarrësve kanë të ardhurat e tyre.
But, on the other hand, the continued strengthening of the Lek is harming Albanian exports, reducing revenues expressed in Lek and making Albanian enterprises less competitive. The continuous decline of the Euro is also reducing the value in Leka of Albanians' savings, which are mostly held in foreign currency./Monitor
